Although space represents yet another realm in which geopolitical and commercial tensions will play out, important traditions of cooperation in this arena should not be forgotten. Powers such as China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Japan, NATO, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States have publicly announced space forces and continue to build space infrastructure, with plans for at least five new space stations by 2030 in the works.5 The first commercial space station is also slated for completion in the next decade.6 Next-step deep space exploration projects are under development, such as the United States-led Artemis programmewhich aims to reopen exploration of the Moon and eventually develop outposts on Mars and asteroids.7 In addition, new space-faring powers will emerge as more economies begin to see opportunities to expand both geopolitical and commercial influence in this arena. 9284 0 obj <>stream apogee Available: https://www.airspacemag.com/space/the-rise-and-fall-and-rise-of-iridium-5615034/, C. Henry, Iridium ends legacy satellite service, switches all traffic to next fleet, Spacenews, Feb. 6, 2019. 800 Independence Avenue SW Accessed on 24 September 2020. Inst. Morgan Stanley estimates that the global space industry could generate revenue of U.S.$1.1 trillion or more in 2040, up from U.S.$350 billion, currently. Copyright 2021 @ Confer Global Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Available: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space, Copyright (c) 2021 Damini Rana; Dr. Mritunjay Sharma. Other leading armed forces also now typically include a space componentfor instance, in 2021, the French Air Force became the Air and Space Force (Arme de lAir & de lEspace). 3: Morgan Stanley. Russian anti-satellite test adds to worsening problem of space debris. Venture financing flooded into the space industry following the successful launches of commercial space flights. Scientific American. Mining.com. hYmO#9+-kV#AcWV>&:HPS$! %vrU=OUR* 2021. While early space activity was conducted or funded by the public sector, the last decade has seen growing private investment. 2021. Available: https://www.spaceangels.com/post/space-investment-quarterly-q4-2019, Morgan Stanley,Space: Investing in the Final Frontier, Morgan Stanley, USA, 2017. The New York Times. [Online]. Providing orbital servicing and debris removal could, however, help alleviate some of the worst consequences.20 Tracking debris is a critical tool in preventing collision or damage, but it will need to become increasingly sophisticated to maintain reliability in a more congested realm. Diplomat Risk Intelligence. 28: Goguichvili, Linenberger and Gillette. 866.835.5322 (866-TELL-FAA)Contact Us, United States Department of Transportation, Aviation Safety Draft Documents Open for Comment, Airport Coronavirus Response Grant Program, Legislation & Policies, Regulations & Guidance, Certificated Remote Pilots including Commercial Operators, Recreational Flyers & Modeler Community-Based Organizations, FAA's STEM Aviation and Space Education (, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2018, Introduction to U.S. Observations of MMOD Impact Damages to the ISS. 2021. Available: https://history.nasa.gov/SP-2006-4702/chapters/chapter12.pdf, M. Weinzierl, Space, the final economic frontier, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. This will likely be an important milestone for the relationship between private enterprise and the U.S. government in the space domain, and one that may garner high levels of media and investor attention. Perhaps private space travel could become commercially available. Accessed on Oct. 25, 2020. Op. Available: https://www.thespacereview.com/article/2166/1#, OECD, The Space Economy in Figures: How Space Contributes to the Global Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 39: Szkutak, R. 2021. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Look out below: What will happen to the space debris in orbit? McKinsey & Company. An official website of the United States government Here's how you know. wyman oliver investment wholesale outlook banking stanley morgan report 15 April 2021. https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/; Shackelford, S. 2019. [Online]. But now, high levels of private funding, advances in technology, and growing public-sector interest is renewing the call to look toward the stars. 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You can change these settings at any time. Available: https://www.blueorigin.com/, J. Matthews, The Decline of Commercial Space Launch Costs, Deloitte Consulting LLP. While this trend could continue, more robust formal governance will be required in a more crowded and competitive space. in hypersonic weapon 'arms race' with China -Air Force secretary. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. [Online]. Specific and functional bilateral or multilateral agreements between major space powers could help create norms and influence broader global behaviours. 15 November 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test; Rincon, P. and Amos, J. 2021. 29: Gabbat, A. Available: https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/07/03/rocket-lab-aims-for-saturday-launch-in-new-zealand-closes-in-on-first-mission-from-virginia/, Goldman Sachs, Space, The Next Investment Frontier, Goldman Sachs, NY, USA, April 4, 2017. With such possibilities becoming likelier in a congested space, the lack of updated international rules around space activity increases the risk of potential clashes. %PDF-1.7 % Just as further innovation in elevator construction was required before todays skyscrapers could dot the skyline, so too will opportunities in space mature because of access and falling launch costs.. While the most recent space exploration efforts have been driven by a handful of private companies in recent years, discussions of a sixth branch of the U.S. militarythe Space Forcealong with growing interest from Russia and China, means public-sector investment may also increase in the coming years. [Online]. Morgan Stanleys research idea on the Space investments: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space. In a recent update to its report, Investment Implications of the Final Frontier, Morgan Stanley Research examines these fast-moving developments and charts the constellation of potential opportunities in space. Available: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/isro-sends-104-satellites-in-one-go-breaks-russias-record/articleshow/57159365.cms#, S. Clark, Rocket Lab Plans Next Launch Saturday, Closes in on First Mission from Virginia, Spaceflight Now, July 3, 2020. For example, governments will increasingly need to compete for talent, with private sector entities offering more lucrative employment packages. GPS satellites not only allow for safe navigation in the air, land and sea, but they also underpin financial transactions, data transmissions and energy control systems. Start-ups aim beyond Earth. Yet, the most significant short- and medium-term opportunities may come from satellite broadband Internet access. 106, no. The billionaire space race launches a new venture capital solar system. Available: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregautry/2017/04/01/the-next-economic-revolution-just-relaunched-congratulate-spacex-thank-nasa/#70a9f25a8c7e, H. W. Jones, The Recent Large Reduction in Space Launch Cost, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2018, NASA, 2020. Rana, D., & Sharma, M. (2021). 11 February 2020. https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum, 24: See, e.g., U.S. Office of the Vice-President. Copyright SpaceWatch.Global GmbH 2022, All Rights Reserved. Today, development of reusable rockets may provide a similar turning point. 2, pp. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 22 May 2020. https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-to-mine-outer-space/; Woo. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/story/index.html, A. F. G. Brown, Accidents, Engineering, and History at NASA 1967-2003, Ph.D. dissertation. Journal of Geophysical Research. And satellite mass production could decrease that cost from U.S.$500 million per satellite to U.S.$500,000. 2021. Packages today delivered by airplane or truck could be delivered more quickly by rocket. *dDNprI1?JYiUXU&DeDz~`Kx&m45xKd} 3xN nMA9o{vL5> U$W$}wzHrG\f#x>imp2mWk J@m@QC]PUr-s+C+}JjwRpet83?xoM5Y&mCv]zu1q # qF74?_05Nn3ONba|-NrdP`9rXpI=G0?#M:Dp\xI{ cZ_,^6v 2jM3Mkgzf+S~ 0 < Op. [Online]. Accessed on: Jan. 10, 2020. 9 35, 2016. Its been nearly half a century since humans left footprints on the moon and during that time human space exploration has largely centered on manned low-Earth orbit missions and unmanned scientific exploration. We believe the largest opportunity comes from providing Internet access to under- and unserved parts of the world, but there also is going to be increased demand for bandwidth fromautonomous cars, theInternet of Things, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and video.. https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/, 35: Scott, C. 2018. Accessed on: Oct. 30, 2020. 16 September 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solar-system/?sh=74f837e7482e, 40: Khodairy, S., Sharaf, M., Awad, M., Hamed, R.A. and Hussein, M. 2020. The Space Review. canadian expecting aum boasting flexing swagger 1978. [Online]. 16 October 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb; Stone, M. 2021. Space.com. Nature. 2021. For complete information about the cookies we use, data we collect and how we process them, please check our. 22 May 2020. https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-to-mine-outer-space/, 33: Pozdnyakova, G. 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.ccn.com/in-spite-of-elon-musk-spacexs-valuation-has-surged-122233-since-2002/, Space Angels,Space Investment Quarterly Q4, 2019, Space Angels, USA, Jan. 14, 2019. Spiegel Business. Export Controls for the Commercial Space Industry, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2017, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2016, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2014, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2013, The 2012 Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation, The 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, The 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, Commercial Space Transportation: 2011 Year in Review, January 2012, Year in Review Fact Sheet, CY 2011, January 2012, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). New commercial entrants are disrupting traditional incumbents control in delivering satellite services, especially in internet-related communications or launch services. Ripple effects across societies could be extensive, even for a few seconds of disruption.35, There are also significant unknowns about the impacts of rapid space development on Earths environmentincluding damage to the ozone layer, butterfly effects from black carbon (soot) emissions, and possible alterations of the polar jet stream.36 Of course, technological advances, such as developments in space-based solar power, could offset many of the potential negative environmental impacts of growing space exploration and exploitation.37. Mining.com. SpaceNews. h233V0P033Q06TKIHMwI-LNu[ZX}`$)`JT};; :x endstream endobj 9286 0 obj <>stream Accessed on Oct. 25, 2020. Respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) reflect these gaps: 76 percent of respondents characterized the current state of international risk mitigation efforts in space as either not started or in early development. Space junk hit the International Space Station, damaging a robotic arm. letter citibank thomson olivia road stanley morgan [Online]. [Online]. [Online]. 2, pp. h233U0PwwI-LNu)J+.H,JK,Hw//-0 wI6 endstream endobj 9287 0 obj <>stream The Guardian. deposit stanley morgan direct form pdffiller k12 needham shsd adam ar 24 July 2020. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space; Stutt, A. [Online]. In 1854, when Elisha Otis demonstrated the safety elevator, the public couldnt foresee its impact on architecture and city design. Chinas Tiangong space station. In August 2018, NASA announced crews for manned flights to the International Space Station (ISS) on commercially developed U.S. rockets. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Understandably, many investors would rather think about nearer-term themes that are actionable and can impact their portfolios in 2019. 3, March 2018. To offer you the best possible functionality of our website, we also use a few cookies. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Collisions could hinder future space development or aggravate international tensions. The investment implications for a more accessible, less expensive reach into outer space could be significant, with potential opportunities in fields such as satellite broadband, high-speed product delivery, and perhaps even human space travel. As commercial activity in space grows, more companies could crop up seeking entry while investor interest is high. Bibcode: 1978JGR.83.2637K. GPS is easy to hack, and the U.S. has no back-up. Defence agencies will need to continue to expend resources to defend against more-sophisticated space-based weaponry and increasingly effective space-based tools of statecraft, such as enhanced surveillance or espionage. Taking advantage of these opportunities to achieve widely accepted norms could then help facilitate discussions around more challenging issues in space, such as limits on weaponization, ownership and appropriate venues from which to govern the realm. Forty-one nations have registered space agencies with UNOOSA,38 yet the many governments not represented will continue to struggle to develop their capacities or earn a seat at the table in key decision-making processes. Notwithstanding high levels of private sector investment, increased commercialization and growing geopolitical competition will demand higher government spending on space programmes and defence at a time when public finances are under greater pressure due to the economic overhang of COVID-19 (see Chapter 1). However, few effective governance tools have emerged in recent years to reflect new realities, such as the pressing need for an authority to govern satellite launches and servicing, space traffic control and common enforcement principles.21, As an exemplar challenge, the 1972 Space Liability Conventionwhich governs international responsibility for space objects launched from Earthlacks precision around hybrid aircraft and rocket transport systems. Mining equipment could be sent to asteroids to extract mineralsall possible, theoretically, with the recent breakthroughs in rocketry. 2021.